{"additions_cutoff":"2026-09-07","fields":[{"caution":"Adoption is not research quality. Historical patent growth does not predict growth through 2031.","claim_ids":["F1"],"id":"ai","label":"AI & discovery","line":"From impressive models to dependable science.","mappings":[{"researcher_id":"r28","role":"Source-aligned summarization for auditable scientific synthesis.","source_ids":["b-s44","b-s45","b-s46"]},{"researcher_id":"r22","role":"Robustness and uncertainty tests for scientific models.","source_ids":["b-s24"]},{"researcher_id":"r23","role":"Statistical and multimodal inference methods.","source_ids":["b-s26","b-s27"]}],"metrics":[{"kind":"Historical observation","label":"Annual GenAI patent-family growth","note":"Published patent families, not grants or unique commercial products. Publication typically lags filing.","period":"2017–2023 · global","source_ids":["patents-genai"],"value":"≈45%"},{"kind":"Study coverage","label":"Papers in the AI-adoption study","note":"This is the size of the corpus studied, not 41.3 million AI papers. Adoption accelerated; causal research-quality gains remain unproven.","period":"1980–2025 · six natural-science fields","source_ids":["root-ai-science"],"value":"41.3m"},{"kind":"Survey expectation","label":"Employers expecting AI transformation","note":"Over 1,000 surveyed employers; not a representative count of researchers or measured future adoption.","period":"Survey outlook to 2030","source_ids":["root-wef"],"value":"86%"}],"opportunity_ids":["o01"],"questions":["Reliable reasoning & evaluation","Efficient learning","Reproducible scientific workflows","Experimental validation"],"source_ids":["patents-genai","root-ai-science","root-wef","science-nih"],"summary":"AI is becoming both a research discipline and a method used across the sciences. The opportunity is making it reliable enough to trust.","why":"Scientific adoption, inventive activity and industry expectations point in the same direction. The next challenge is validation: useful results that survive contact with real experiments."},{"caution":"Much grid delay comes from permitting, finance and construction. Investment is not the same as R&D.","claim_ids":["F2"],"id":"energy","label":"Energy & materials","line":"More electricity. Smarter ways to use it.","mappings":[{"researcher_id":"r10","role":"Functional ceramics and ionic transport as enabling materials; energy-system fit still needs a specific use case.","source_ids":["a-s31"]},{"researcher_id":"r01","role":"Low-power circuit methods for measured energy efficiency.","source_ids":["a-s01"]},{"researcher_id":"r27","role":"Memory and circuit efficiency with explicit hardware tradeoffs.","source_ids":["b-s40"]}],"metrics":[{"kind":"Investment estimate","label":"Power-sector battery investment","note":"Estimated deployment investment, not an R&D budget.","period":"2025 · global estimate","source_ids":["demand-energy-investment"],"value":"$66bn"},{"kind":"Historical observation","label":"Battery patent applications","note":"Applications at the European Patent Office from applicants worldwide; not global patent-family growth.","period":"2025 vs 2024 · EPO","source_ids":["root-epo2025"],"value":"+14.6%"},{"kind":"Investment estimate","label":"Annual grid investment","note":"Compared with around $1 trillion in generation. Neither measure is research expenditure.","period":"IEA World Energy Investment 2025","source_ids":["demand-energy-investment"],"value":"≈$400bn"}],"opportunity_ids":["o02"],"questions":["Durable, affordable storage","Battery safety & recycling","Grid integration","Power electronics & materials"],"source_ids":["demand-energy-investment","root-epo2025","science-doe"],"summary":"Storage, grids and enabling materials sit at the intersection of electrification, resilience and rising computing demand.","why":"Deployment is exposing gaps in storage, grid integration and materials performance. Research can improve the physical systems that make reliable, affordable electricity possible."},{"caution":"EPO biotechnology applications fell 3.3% in 2025. A large research base does not prove accelerating growth.","claim_ids":["F3"],"id":"biotech","label":"Biotech & health","line":"Moving biological insight into useful care.","mappings":[{"researcher_id":"r21","role":"Single-cell states and biological fidelity.","source_ids":["b-s21"]},{"researcher_id":"r18","role":"Spatial genomics and measurement design.","source_ids":["b-s11","b-s12"]},{"researcher_id":"r16","role":"Nanoparticle platforms and biomedical imaging.","source_ids":["b-s04"]}],"metrics":[{"kind":"Research scale","label":"Global publications in health sciences","note":"A broad health-science publication share, not the share in precision medicine or a growth rate.","period":"2024 · global","source_ids":["root-nsf"],"value":"22%"},{"kind":"Reported research expenditure","label":"Business biotechnology R&D","note":"U.S.-only business research spending; technology focus categories can overlap.","period":"2023 · United States","source_ids":["root-nsf"],"value":"$136bn"},{"kind":"Contrary signal","label":"Biotechnology patent applications","note":"Pharmaceutical applications also fell 6.3%; this does not establish a global decline in biomedical research.","period":"2025 vs 2024 · EPO","source_ids":["root-epo2025"],"value":"−3.3%"}],"opportunity_ids":["o04","o06"],"questions":["Computational biology","Biological engineering","Biomarkers & delivery","Manufacturing & clinical validation"],"source_ids":["patents-biotech","root-epo2025","root-nsf"],"summary":"A substantial research base meets a difficult translation problem: turning discoveries into reproducible, manufacturable interventions.","why":"The scale of biomedical research and sustained attention to data and AI make this a major field. Its future growth is selective and uncertain, with clinical validation still essential."},{"caution":"Capital spending can overshoot demand. A data-centre electricity projection is a scenario, not a guaranteed outcome.","claim_ids":["F4"],"id":"computing","label":"Computing hardware","line":"The future of computing has physical limits.","mappings":[{"researcher_id":"r32","role":"Computer architecture and processing-in-memory for real workloads.","source_ids":["c-s08"]},{"researcher_id":"r01","role":"Digital circuits and memory-access energy.","source_ids":["a-s01"]},{"researcher_id":"r30","role":"Fault-tolerant hardware theory and network algorithms.","source_ids":["c-s04"]}],"metrics":[{"kind":"Historical observation","label":"Semiconductor patent applications","note":"One office’s application measure; not a five-year research forecast.","period":"2025 vs 2024 · EPO","source_ids":["root-epo2025"],"value":"+7.6%"},{"kind":"Finalized awards","label":"Advanced packaging research awards","note":"Awards for substrates and materials research; not completed spending or successful research outcomes.","period":"NIST · first NAPMP funding round","source_ids":["root-nist"],"value":"$300m"},{"kind":"Observation + projection","label":"Data-centre electricity consumption","note":"IEA’s 2030 value is a modeled Base Case. It depends on adoption, efficiency and infrastructure constraints.","period":"2024 observed → 2030 Base Case","source_ids":["demand-energy-ai"],"value":"415 → 945"}],"opportunity_ids":["o02","o08"],"questions":["Advanced packaging","Memory & photonic interconnect","Power delivery & cooling","Yield, testing & reliability"],"source_ids":["demand-alphabet","demand-energy-ai","root-epo2025","root-nist"],"summary":"Growing demand puts memory, packaging, power and heat at the centre of the research agenda.","why":"Dedicated research awards and industrial requirements support work on the physical computing stack. Better devices and systems can reduce energy and material costs per useful computation."},{"caution":"The evidence cannot establish fifth place. Quantum is a serious alternative, and comparable research-growth data are missing.","claim_ids":["F5"],"id":"robotics","label":"Robotics & autonomy","line":"From controlled demos to the real world.","mappings":[{"researcher_id":"r33","role":"Localization and distributed sensing methods; this is an enabling-method fit, not verified robotics deployment.","source_ids":["c-s12"]},{"researcher_id":"r24","role":"Decision systems and stochastic control.","source_ids":["b-s30","b-s31"]},{"researcher_id":"r39","role":"Uncertainty-aware models and camera localization; embodied-system validation remains open.","source_ids":["c-s31","c-s32"]}],"metrics":[{"kind":"Deployment observation","label":"Operating industrial robots","note":"Operational stock, not research activity or annual installations. Reported exact count: 4,663,698.","period":"2024 · global","source_ids":["demand-robots"],"value":"4.66m"},{"kind":"Deployment observation","label":"Growth in operating robot stock","note":"Stock grew, but annual purchases were uneven across regions. This is not a research-growth rate.","period":"2024 vs 2023 · global","source_ids":["demand-robots"],"value":"+9%"},{"kind":"Survey expectation","label":"Employers expecting robotics transformation","note":"Expectations in the WEF employer sample, not measured research or an objective deployment forecast.","period":"Survey outlook to 2030","source_ids":["root-wef"],"value":"58%"}],"opportunity_ids":[],"questions":["Robust perception","Manipulation & safe control","System integration","Dependable physical operation"],"source_ids":["demand-robots","patents-transport","root-wef"],"summary":"A growing industrial installed base creates a reason to study machines that operate reliably across changing tasks and environments.","why":"Deployment, employer expectations and transport patents make robotics a plausible candidate. The research challenge is robust integration, rather than assuming mass humanoid adoption."},{"caution":"Patent expansion is not commercial maturity. Firm entry has plateaued recently, investment recovered only partly after a decline, and roadmaps do not establish useful fault-tolerant computing by 2031.","claim_ids":["c-select-quantum","a-c2","a-c3"],"id":"quantum","label":"Quantum technologies","line":"Measure, connect and compute in new ways.","mappings":[{"researcher_id":"r08","role":"Optically active defects and quantum-emitter materials.","source_ids":["a-s25"]},{"researcher_id":"r12","role":"Frequency-domain quantum optics and integrated photonics.","source_ids":["a-s37"]},{"researcher_id":"r15","role":"Atom–photon interfaces and quantum sensing.","source_ids":["b-s01"]},{"researcher_id":"r35","role":"Quantum measurement theory and sensing concepts.","source_ids":["c-s17","c-s18"]},{"researcher_id":"r41","role":"First-principles models of defects and light–matter interactions.","source_ids":["c-s36","c-s37"]},{"researcher_id":"r42","role":"Integrated quantum optics and nonlinear conversion.","source_ids":["c-s39","c-s40"]}],"metrics":[{"kind":"Historical patent indicator","label":"Growth in quantum international patent families","note":"OECD/EPO reports sevenfold growth. Families are an inventive-activity proxy, not products or future market share.","period":"2005–2024 · global","source_ids":["a-q5"],"value":"7×"},{"kind":"Published research priorities","label":"Sensing and networking readiness","note":"Some quantum sensing is established; proposed next-generation sensors still need end-user validation and enabling components. Networking has separate testbed and integration challenges.","period":"2022 sensing plan · 2024 networking review · United States","source_ids":["a-q6"],"value":"Uneven"}],"opportunity_ids":["o10"],"questions":["Stable emitters and low-loss photonic interfaces","Quantum sensing with an independent performance baseline","Error correction and realistic resource costs","Networking testbeds and component compatibility"],"source_ids":["a-q5","a-q6","a-q7"],"summary":"Quantum sensing, communication and computing open distinct research questions. Their readiness differs sharply across applications.","why":"Historical patent activity and public research roadmaps support a field beyond conventional chips: robust quantum states, useful sensors and interoperable photonic systems. The opportunity is to demonstrate a specific advantage under realistic conditions."},{"caution":"The reviewed evidence is strongest for water-focused adaptation. Need and patent activity do not prove effective adaptation, customer demand or available research funding. Water innovation has also lagged other clean-technology sectors.","claim_ids":["c-select-resilience","b-climate-water-need","b-climate-water-innovation","c-adaptation-finance"],"id":"resilience","label":"Climate & water resilience","line":"Make water systems ready for changing conditions.","mappings":[{"researcher_id":"r04","role":"Anti-fouling interfaces for a water-monitoring durability question.","source_ids":["a-s12"]},{"researcher_id":"r10","role":"Functional materials whose sensing compatibility must first be tested.","source_ids":["a-s31"]},{"researcher_id":"r33","role":"Calibration and estimation that expose measurement uncertainty.","source_ids":["c-s12"]}],"metrics":[{"kind":"Hydrological observation","label":"River basins with normal conditions","note":"WMO reports only one third had normal conditions. This combines reported data, modelling and satellite evidence; it is not a count of basins with human harm.","period":"2024 · WMO global assessment","source_ids":["b-wmo-water-2025"],"value":"⅓"},{"kind":"Historical inventive activity","label":"Annual water-technology patent families","note":"EPO reports growth from roughly 300 in the early 1990s. Treatment accounts for about 60%; these are not adaptation-only patents or deployed outcomes.","period":"2020s · international patent families","source_ids":["b-epo-water-patents"],"value":">1,200"},{"kind":"Reported finance flow","label":"International public adaptation finance","note":"UNEP 2025 reports a decline from $28bn in 2022. These flows are not an R&D budget, a grant forecast or a funding allocation for Bar-Ilan.","period":"2023 · flows to developing countries","source_ids":["c-unep-2025"],"value":"$26bn"}],"opportunity_ids":["o07"],"questions":["Sensors that retain calibration under fouling and drift","Combining field measurements with remote observations","Early warning and robust decisions under uncertainty","Maintenance, affordability and measured local benefit"],"source_ids":["b-wmo-water-2025","b-epo-water-patents","c-unep-2025"],"summary":"Water monitoring, durable sensing and decisions under uncertainty form a practical adaptation agenda alongside the existing energy field.","why":"Observed water variability creates a reason to improve measurements and early warning. Water-specific patent activity and policy attention support investigating solutions, while the financing shortfall makes affordable, maintainable designs essential."}],"horizon":[2027,2031],"original_cutoff":"2026-09-06","schema_version":"1"}